NDX trade wins AGAIN ... but profit was shaved a bit

That's 9 in a row and 9 for 10 overall on the NDX weekly trade!

I did start "production" this week, risking 25% or so of the accounts where I was doing this. Volatility is still quite low so I didn't get as much premium as I have been getting normally. In 3 different trades I got:

• $1.42  (16.55%)
• $1.35  (15.61%)
• $1.20  (13.64%)

But a funny thing happened on the way to getting these full results:

I had sold the 6220 call, and the NDS report for Friday (where the NDX settles and that's how the trade's results come out) was 6220.84. This means that $84 of the potential profit didn't happen, so yields were:

• $1.42 - $0.84 = $0.58  (6.16%)
• $1.35 - $0.84 = $0.51 (5.38%)
• $1.20 - $0.84 = $0.36 (3.73%)

I'll take it! But ... getting the NDX trade filled is weird and difficult. The prices bounce around so and the markets are 'wide' (i.e. the bid/ask spread is probably 50 cents wide on this spread) ..

So I'm going to start testing an alternative (or an adjunct; I can do both): Tesla! Symbol is TSLA and its chart looks like this for the last week:

Putting on a 1 standard deviation smallest iron condor on Wednesday the 3rd would have returned $0.66 ... but on a $2.50 wide iron condor, so return for that would be ... 35.89%! And it would have worked this week ....

So I'm going to start running this ... probably early Thursday morning for 2 days next week, for 10 or 20 weeks just to see how often it works. It should be much easier to fill than NDX, and I can use the 20 weeks of data as a rough estimate (I'll certainly assume that it wins less often than the results show,  and that it returns a bit less) ... and then I can use the Kelly Criterion again if and when I decide to take it into "production." ...

Watch this space next week ....