Updated blog name more accurately reflects what I'm doing

I first thought I could get a trading algorithm to work based on technical analysis:

But I realized after doing some research that most technical analysis trails the market rather than leading it, and there are oodles of other folks trying to do these algorithms ...

I then put my toe into the Tastytrade "trade small, trade often" method .... but I didn't give it too much of a chance before realizing that I could make a much higher return using the Kelly Criterion and the ideas of Ralph Vince.

I evaluate trades by running Monte Carlo simulations on them based on past or projected results.

The two trades I have going right now:

• An NDX 1 standard deviation iron condor on expiring options, put on every Thursday late in the trading day (I've been using around 10 a.m. Pacific) and held until the results are in the next day (based on the a.m. settlement price using a symbol NDS).
• A Tesla 2-day 1 standard deviation iron condor, on options expiring at midnight Friday

I have the NDX trade in "production" using around 1/2 the Kelly Criterion for sizing the positions. I saw a study showing that it wins 91.7% of the time, and it's living up to that reputation.

The TSLA trade is just one I'm testing with the minimal 1-lot, so far. I speculate that it should win at least 80% of the time, but I don't know yet.

Management of these two trades is dead simple:

• The NDX trade is simply "set it and forget it" until you check on the NDS price the next morning. (You can obsess on the /NQ futures price in the interim, but it doesn't help!)
• The TSLA trade is just a little more complex. You have to watch it to make sure the price doesn't hit either short strike ... the NDX trade is cash-settled, but the TSLA trade is not. You get assigned 100 shares, short or long, depending on which option price is breached. So just set an alert at those prices so you get in a close the position before expiration ... you may still make a small profit.

That's it ... otherwise I just sit in cash until the next Thursday. It's very peaceful not being short anymore, in the face of the incessant Trump Tax Cut Rally.