NDX weekly trade wins again: 8 for 9!

I did put a short /ES trade back in for just 1 contract, unfortunately selling a 2nd put against it on Friday:

I had heard (via Tastytrade) that there might be some weirdness the last hour, and boy no kidding!

But back to the NDX trade: it worked again! Now 8 in a row and 8 for 9: 88.9%! And I got $1.86 credit, which is 22.8% return on capital. Wahoo!

That's enough of a test; I'm taking this into "production" next week using 1/2 the Kelly Criterion.

Given the assumptions that I'm going with (11 for 12 wins on average, returning 20% on average bet), the full Kelly Criterion recommends betting just over half your account on every trial. That's a little too exciting for me, but 1/2 that seems OK: 25% of the account.

More next week ...

NDX weekly trade: 7 in a row and 7 for 8!

I did give up on the short /ES futures trade just as it was about to start working:

It stopped going straight up, which is all you need to make money selling puts against the futures contract(s) ... I trust I'll have another opportunity later for this ...

But back to the star of our show: the NDX weekly trade. It won again this week, for 7 in a row and 7 for 8: 87.5% and counting:

Unfortunately I put this trade on at the minimum volatility of the morning and only got $1.00 for it (11.1%) ... based on action later in the morning I could have set an order to fill at $1.35 and got that later ...

Once again, the study I saw showed this trade winning 11 for 12 (91.7%) and we're getting in range of that.

Visualizing 17 in a row! More next week ...

I'm just about to give up being short ....

Another week of the relentless skyward climb of the S&P 500:

Right now the brokerage I'm using is down so I don't have the exact damage number, but I'm down at least 40% this month despite all the credit I've collected selling puts .... If present trends continue I can just close the short S&P futures and sell the puts naked!

That should flip the market over ... but now for the good news:

That's 6 for 7 in the NDX weekly trade ... 91.7% is 11 for 12, so we're still on track for that.

If the S&P isn't down on Monday I'm going to give up on my short strategy and move to this weekly NDX trade in my own account.

Watch this space ...

Another mixed week ... NDX trade now 5 for 6, /ES suffers again

It's now looking like the 91.7% results were on target; 5 for 6 is 83.3%  ... Actually I was girding myself for a loss this past week:

... as my short call was at 6370. But the trade is marked not on the opening but after all 100 of the NDX 100 stocks open, and marked under the symbol NDS. That squeaked in:

and all 4 legs expired worthless, as a good Iron Condor is supposed to. I sold the spread for $1.77, which is a 21.5% return ....

On the short /ES trade: bleah! Here's the 5-day chart:

I did pay back to myself the extra $750 I had put in to meet a margin call last week. But then I got too excited during Wednesday's market dip and sold another 1 contract. The bounce straight up from there leaves me with $18009.09 of the $28134 or so I started with. Splut!

I started by just leaving the 3rd contract without selling a put against it, so I'd get the complete benefit of any further market meltdown. Not so ... I finally sold that 3rd put on Friday with 2 others, thinking I could get $1000 credit per week to make it back (assuming the market would just stop going up!)

But no: I'm in margin call again so will have to close that third /ES short contract and put pair ... but maybe not until close on Monday so I get all weekend plus Monday's theta ...

We'll see .... More next week!

NDX trade 4 for 5, short /ES whomped again

First the annoying news:

The then-incipient tax cut burbling its way through congress late last week sent the market into a frenzy of buying, up to 2658 and change before closing Friday at 2642.75. This leaves me with $20677.87 ... I did actually cut down the size of the trade I had on by 60%, thank goodness! But the sharp upmove really caused damage ... it was even worse on Thursday.

But: buy the rumor, sell the news (I hope!) The Senate passed its version late Friday night so with any luck that will allow a bit of down movement in /ES ...

Now for the good news: the NDX weekly trade is now 4 for 5 (80%):

Thursday to Friday a.m. it was down, but not quite enough to damage the trade ... close was 6315.56, not touching the short 6310 put ... I sold this one just after 11 a.m. PST on Thursday and got $1.75 in credit ... that's a 21.2% return ($1.75 / $8.25) ... Just need to do that 91.7% of the time as advertised .... more next week!