NDX weekly trade wins again: 8 for 9!

I did put a short /ES trade back in for just 1 contract, unfortunately selling a 2nd put against it on Friday:

I had heard (via Tastytrade) that there might be some weirdness the last hour, and boy no kidding!

But back to the NDX trade: it worked again! Now 8 in a row and 8 for 9: 88.9%! And I got $1.86 credit, which is 22.8% return on capital. Wahoo!

That's enough of a test; I'm taking this into "production" next week using 1/2 the Kelly Criterion.

Given the assumptions that I'm going with (11 for 12 wins on average, returning 20% on average bet), the full Kelly Criterion recommends betting just over half your account on every trial. That's a little too exciting for me, but 1/2 that seems OK: 25% of the account.

More next week ...