A look at real returns over the period I've been trading NDX

I started testing the NDX trade with 1-lots (the minimum) on Thursday, October 26, 2017. Since then, the main account I've been testing with is up from $5126 to $6903. This is nearly 35%!

... for just those 13 weeks. And I was just testing, trading 1-lots ... if I'd been using the 1/2 Kelly Criterion I'd have lost more the first week but gained double or more for the following 10 weeks ... I calculate the gain would then have been in the range of 50%!

Getting back to the realm of speculation, but standing on the real test results of the past 13 weeks and assuming 91.7% wins on a firm footing, I think:  the one-year Monte Carlo mean result if I assume 15 percent gain on each winning trade and 100% loss on each losing one, risking 33% of the account always:

Finally, if I assume the same as the above run but with an average 20 percent gain: 334%!

And: that's assuming 100% loss on every losing trade, which almost certainly won't be that extreme ...

Wahoo!