Wildly volatile week turns out OK after all ...

After this week I feel like I've been ...

(Well, maybe to Purgatory. I haven't read this book, either.)

I stuck with my long /ES futures contract all the way down and back up:

This guy didn't read "what every secretary of the treasury should know" before saying that he called all the banks ...

The banks said they were OK.

... but the market on Monday wasn't so sure, /ES closing at 2342.25 at the end of the 1/2 day Christmas Eve session.

On Wednesday, the consensus must have been "hey, we overdid it" and /ES rose nearly 5%. Thursday was also a crazily volatile day, with /ES dipping back below 2400 before sharply rallying at the end of the day, closing at around 2495. It flattened out on Friday, finally, closing at 2488.

Assuming no other crazy drops from here, that leaves me in good position long one /ES future (bought at 2503, back before the craziness) and short one /ES 2570 call expiring next Friday the 4th. I can let that one expire worthless ... or on a crazy up move cover it and get out of the way.

I also put on a couple of neutral trades in my own and client's accounts that were looking very shaky to the down side but now look shaky to the upside .. assuming the shutdown is going to be resolved next week. I'm almost back even on the 2245 / 2570 short strangle in my own account, and if it gets to being a small profit on Sunday afternoon when the market reopens I'm going to be tempted to take it and run.

Client accounts have neutral iron condors on TSLA, CMG and SPX ... SPX looks scary to the upside (short the 2550 call), but the TSLA and CMG were so beaten down that they have oodles of room to go further up just to get back into the green.

More next week ...

NDX a.m. settlement trade in detail; /ES futures give & take away ...

The "fabulous NDX a.m. settlement" trade won again this week, returning over 20% on the amount at risk ... when everything else was going straight down!

A friend from work (hi DW) mentioned that I hadn't shown exactly what I mean by the "fabulous NDX trade" I've been going on about in this blog ... since I had my whole trading strategy built on it
until Nasdaq made it p.m settled for three out of the 4 weeks.

Anyway, here goes:

• The trade goes on at 9:45 a.m. Pacific time on Thursday before a.m. settlement. This last one was December 20; the next one will be Thursday the 17th.
• It's a "one standard deviation iron condor" meaning:
• You sell 1 put and 1 call (or 10 of each, but let's start with 1, OK?), both near the .16 delta ("Delta" is the ratio of the rate of change of the price option at the indicated strike price as the underlying stock moves. So a .16 delta option would move 16 cents for every dollar the underlying stock moves) ... since this is a two-sided trade, you have to add the odds of losing on each side: 16% (rule of thumb .. more about this below) x 2 = 32% ... the obverse of 1 standard deviation.
• You then buy a corresponding put and call, each at least 50 points away from the short strike; more if you can afford it. 
• Settlement occurs not exactly on the opening price, but when each of the 100 stocks in the index posts an opening price. This is given in a daily symbol called NDS.

Illustrations:

This is an example of putting this trade on not the next day, but a month out. But the interface will look the same, just with different numbers. You get less credit (but not that much less ... I still got $10 to $11 on this trade last Thursday) but the short strikes are much closer together. For example, for Thursday's win I sold this one:

1. Sold the 6140 put and the 6370 call (x 2 contracts)
2. Bought the 6080 put and the 6430 call (x 2 contracts)

I got $10.50 credit, so the risk/return formula is like this:

credit received ($10.50) / (width of strikes ($60) - credit received ($10.50))

$10.50 / $49.50 = 21.2% ... not quite this good because of commissions, but I still took in > $2000 for about $10,000 risked.

NDS settlement value was 6244, so nowhere close to losing. Wahoo!

About the "one standard deviation" ... it's only a rule of thumb and in practice it usually overstates the risk of loss and therefore overpays ... I've been running this trade for over a year and have only seen it lose twice, probably in 24 tries. 

Why you want to use as wide "wings" as possible:

If you have $10,000 to risk on the trade, you can do it with 60-wide wings as I did, or 25-wide wings, and just increase the numbers of contracts. 

The return is significantly higher: 36% vs 21%. But you're much more likely to lose 100% of the amount you're risking than you are with wider wings.

Think about it: your "loss window" is 20 points wide instead of 50 points wide as in my example. So when the NDS value is just above your long call or below your short put, you lose 100%. I lose only about 40% on the same value.

Questions? Leave me a message here.

OK, now for the /ES futures saga. Where's a Santa Claus Rally when I need one? Basically it went down all week:

This would have been OK ... had I held onto my short /ES position ... but I was thinking it had been so far down it was due to recover or at least flatten out, allowing me to sell calls against a long position. So I bought one /ES contract (for my personal account only) at 2503.25. Then:

Oops; I get them mixed up. I meant:

So the futures market closed at 2421.25 Friday. Sheesh.

I have to think:

• This'll have to be over before too long ... 
• It's already "priced into the market" so should flatten out at worst or drift higher
• I can sell calls to make up the difference.

We'll see ... more next week!

Short /ES futures trade continues to pay off

The news this week once again seemed to be a drag on the stock market:

Huawei CFO who was arrested in Canada

And of course, "men of the year":

Overall this was great for anyone short /ES:

I closed out the futures butterfly trades I had on: wheat, soybeans and corn.

For some reason corn (/ZC) kept from showing a profit on an (adjusted) butterfly trade until about 1 week until expiration, and even then I think I took a small loss getting out of it. The other two "softs" behaved normally and actually I made an $800+ profit on the wheat trade.

Coming up is "expiration week" where the NDX a.m. settlement 1-day trade is available. So I'm planning to put the pedal down on this one, since it's the one trade I have not only research but a ton of personal experience with ... 

More next week!

A much better week in the trading trenches, due to short /ES futures well timed ...

The fake trade truce of last weekend briefly spiked the market, but when the /ES futures reached 2806 I shorted them, and from there (this is the last two weeks' chart):

I'm also short the 2580 /ES put expiring Friday the 14th (for which I got $1200 credit!). I am very willing to roll this one down further if this level is breached.

Meanwhile, the 4-day NDX trade is on probation ... I put in another small one (25-wide wings, $2270 or so at risk). Unlike last week, I put in an order to get out with 40% of the credit, and that got filled early Tuesday a.m. That's very fortunate, as the NDX graphic looks almost identical to the one above.

But I was short the 6750 puts ... I received $270 in credit and cashed out $108 of this ... which would have turned into a loss of the whole amount at risk, since the Friday close was at 6613!

I think I'll just try a 4-day QQQ trade with 5-wide wings until I can get some backtesting done on NDX for this one.

Also, in a couple of small accounts I'm trading, I am trying the 'Tastytrade method': start at 45 DTE and take only 1/2 the credit ... (I'm also putting in the Fabulous NDX trade in all accounts > $5000  coming up for a.m settlement on the 21st.) Those tiny trades (just CMG and TSLA) are still 40 days away from expiration and in no danger of breaching anything ...

I'm surprised this took so long: Trump-inspired volatility. But I'm happy to be able to trade on it!

More next week ....

What St. Paul and I have in common

Tough week in the trading trenches this past week, self-inflicted kind ...

A free translation of Paul's words: "why did I screw up again when I know better?"

I put on the NDX trade early Monday a.m. (PST) and it went up rather sharply the first couple of days ... meaning that volatility collapsed and the trade was worth only about 60% of what I had sold it for.

Instead of taking that 40% of possible credit and going on with my life, I just let it go ... and the market continued to rocket up. Apparently this guy changed two words in one of his guidances:

That made some people think interest rates aren't going up as fast as had previously been thought ...

So by Thursday my little profit had evaporated and I was showing a largish loss had I closed it out at that point. So I held on ...

... through Friday a.m. when the uptrend softened and "collapsed" briefly ... I was short the 6900 calls and the market went down to 6882 by the time I stopped looking at it, at which I could still have closed it out for a small loss. But I did nothing ...

Here's the complete chart:

As you can see, the Friday a.m. weakening dissolved and the price spiked about 70 points in the last 2.5 or 3 hours, closing at 6949.01 For those scoring at home, I have been using 75-wide strikes (thank goodness!) but still ... I got $6.90 in credit and the difference between 6975 and 6906.90 is 68.10. 6949.01 - 6906.90 =  61.8% loss of the amount I had at risk.

Sheesh.

A couple of things become even clearer:

• I should be using even wider strikes for NDX, in accounts sized big enough to do this. I'm going to try 150 wide in my own account ...
• If I get that 40% of the credit by Tuesday profit I'm darned sure going to take it.

Your $200000  account this week would have lost about $20000, if I'd had 1/3 of your account doing this trade and you lost 1/3 of that (assuming 150-wide strikes) .... but if I'd grabbed the 40% when I should have you would have made $3500 or so.

More next week ...

Dancing with the one (NDX) that brung me, maybe?

I settled on the a.m. settled NDX trade earlier this year as the only trade I'd need to do. But the 4-day NDX p.m. settled one (at .08 short delta) is now 3 for 3 and should win in the 90% range or better, I think.

I tested one again this week, and an acid test it was, with the market sharply down Monday and Tuesday:

The down move finally paused on Wednesday and I should really have taken the trade off for 90% of its profit, but I missed that opportunity and just let it run through expiration Friday, where it expired worthless with plenty of room left (short 6400 puts; closed at 6527). Profit was $1176 on a risk of $13824: 8.5% for 4 days. Not bad!

Otherwise ... I closed out the /ES short positions after the market hit 2655 ... I thought that was enough of  a down move and I didn't want to lose $100 point when it started to go up. But I was early! I left $2000 on the table and it was down 17 again on Friday closing at 2632 ... so I certainly could have held on for a while longer.

It wasn't anything to do with Brexit, but AAPL:

Finally, the Golden Butterfly paid off handsomely:

Gold futures went nowhere after I put the trade on last Sunday evening ... Tastyworks still doesn't support Good 'Til Cancelled orders, which worked to my benefit on this one. I sold the spread for $10.20 and would have bought it back for $7.65 (1/4 of the credit for this kind of trade), but by the time I looked at it was down in the $5.50 range and I got it filled for $5.60, almost double what I was expecting.

Overall a great week for the good guys ... your $200,000 account was up another $15000!

More next week ...

The joy of being short ... at the right time! (Your $200,000 account: up $18K!)

The down move came a week late, but what a move:

I held on to my two short futures contracts and sold 4 2670 puts against it for just the couple of days ending Friday. I have two remaining that expire next Friday the 23rd.

I've been enamored of the idea of selling puts against a short position, sometimes to my detriment. But despite the prospect of a typical Santa Claus Rally,

I think there's enough weirdness around with Brexit

... and of course the ongoing shenanigans in Washington:

That it seems a lot more likely to me that we'll get a more nearly flat market ... which will be perfect for what I'm planning:

(1) Continuing to sell 2 (at least!) puts against my 2 short /ES futures contracts ... occasionally I may sell an extra couple, as I did last week for a couple of days ...

(2) NDX: 4-day Iron Condor, Monday to Friday, short strikes at the .08 delta (i.e. waay out wide) and at least 50 or 60 point wide wings.

(3) A mix of commodity futures, including the Golden Butterfly since I finally remembered the adjustment of selling another one! This worked well (I made $500 in a couple of weeks) the last time I tried this.

Your $200,000 account was up about $18000 last week ... Wahoo!

I give up (mostly) predicting market direction after a near miss this week

I thought that since the Democrats were widely expected to take the House of Representatives that that would be negative for the market. So on Monday I sold 1 /ES future short at 2722.25.

Unfortunately:

On Wednesday midday with the market continuing to soar, I sold another /ES futures contract short at 2801.50, thinking what a great opportunity that was. It wasn't until Friday, until the market went down below 2780, closing at 2778.75.

Unfortunately the SPX closes at 1 PST and not 2 PST along with the /ES futures, so it missed a couple of points of down move.  This is an issue because I'd also sold short the 2775/2785 call spread in SPX, for $2.50 to $2.55 credit. So loss closing at 2781.01 was $351 for a one-lot, less than half of what it could have been (and that I was resigned to on Wednesday ...)

We're now in position to do what I've tried to do previously when NOT in this position: sell puts against short futures contracts. I have two on right now (expiring Friday Nov 16) and can sell two for the next few weeks at least (I think!) for $1000 or more per week.

(Note: this doesn't mean $1000 profit per week. Depends on the movement of the underlying futures price. I'm ahead on the one I sold short at 2801.50 and behind on the one I sold at 2722.25).  Effectively I'm "reducing the basis" of these ... if I sell one put for $500, that's 10 points for /ES futures, effectively as if I'd sold the losing short at 2732.25 instead of 2722.25 ...

In other action ...

I've continued to sell futures options strangles and butterflies, small, and mostly have won on these. In fact I made $500 on yet another gold (/GC) butterfly with an adjustment I remembered from Dan Sheridan's butterfly guy Mark Fenton: you just sell another butterfly:

This worked beautifully and I'm going to continue to experiment with it.

But I think NDX can continue to be the "bread and butter" trade ... It's "expiration week" coming up this week on the 16th, where NDX settles in the a.m. instead of the p.m. So I'm going to load up on this trade again, at 9:45 a.m. PST Thursday:  "one standard deviation" Iron Condors with very wide wings. That's short at the .16 delta and long 50 to 70 points away.

On "non-expiration" weeks I think the .08 delta NDX trade from Monday to Friday should work at least as well: 91.7% for the a.m. settlement and I'm assuming at least 90% for the Monday-to-Friday p.m. settled trade.

More next week ....

NDX 2 and 0, SPX 1 and 1 ... futures mostly still winning; AAPL wipes out a millenial

Volatility calmed down a bit this week (the Vix was down, closing at 19.15). Our friend NDX:

... was still volatile enough to pay well ($4.38 on a 1-lot, with short strikes at 6475 and 7270) ... it never got near those short strikes and I held it to expiration today for its full $438.

On the S&P 500 I moved to SPY and just sold a strangle for "78 cents" way out wide ... and closed it a day early, just taking $68 of the $78 dollars I would have gotten on that one.

If these two trades really pay off 90% of the time, with "wide wings" I should be able to make a good living trading them (along with the once per month a.m. settled NDX trade) ... fingers crossed!

The futures trades I have on are mostly paying off, still, but they mostly don't have frequent enough expirations to use like the NDX and SPX trades we're trying ... but I'm leaving them on this week because they shouldn't be too troubled by....

Next week is the U.S. election, and with the Democrats all but sure to win the house and the market today only holding up a little bit at the end because of this:

Trump says 'I think we'll make a deal with China' on trade

But this was seen as just a transparent attempt to prop up the stock market before the election ... which gave me a chance to sell /ES futures contracts around 2722 when they bounced late in the day.

Everybody in the world is expecting the Democrats will take the House of Representatives this election, which will mean only one thing for the market:

I am thus staying out of the neutral trades this week and instead just sold futures contracts and a 'bear call spread' on SPX in the non-futures-capable accounts I am trading. (These return about 30% for the week all by themselves.)

Finally, AAPL told the world that they aren't going to report sales numbers anymore, and that was not popular:

Tim Knight reported that one millenial who's gotten used to putting everything into this trade got wiped out this time ...

Let's be prudent out there ... more next week!

Pipe bombs and volatility, SPX, NDX, futures

There's nothing like watching the market for your just about to expire (neutral) options spread when you get this news:

Pipe bombs were sent to George Soros, CNN, other "liberals"

This whacked my SPX trade for a total loss ... This was one of the low points (Wednesday at 1pm PDT of an extraordinarily volatile week:

I'm still trading futures options, but I've decided to try SPX and NDX 4-day spreads at the .08 delta: SPX Friday to Wednesday and NDX Monday to Friday in hopes of juicing the results between Fabulous NDX monthly trades. Bad timing for the SPX last week, but the NDX came in for full profit after bouncing around like a ping-pong ball on Friday. (It actually never got too close to my short strike at 6725).

And (duhhh ...) I can test this with SPY and QQQ ... I've dropped back to using SPY (a short strangle, at 247 and 275.5 (i.e waay out wide). Tomorrow morning I'm going to put on a 50-point-wing wide NDX iron condor and a QQQ trade also (strangle or condor).

I'm going to try all these for 10 weeks ... I speculate that they should work in the 90% range, but we'll see.

Futures options are not quite as fabulous when doing strangles/condors as with butterflies, but I'm still using them also as part of the mix. But with volatility at such hugely elevated levels lately, it's too tempting to mix in equities. The VIX closed Friday at 24.16!

More next week ...

NDX trade: can it keep your house from sliding into the ravine?

Try talking to your contractor about this one?

Some friends of our family got an estimate of $300,000 to shore up their house from sliding into the ravine behind the house. (It doesn't look nearly this bad, but $300K to fix, still.)

It turns out that our friends have enough funds from another real estate sale to fix their own place, but if you did (or if you do) have something similar, what could you do about it?

The NDX monthly options, for traditional reasons, don't last until the end of day Friday of their expiration day. Instead, they settle based on the symbol NDS, which is the daily settlement value of NDS. It's valued whenever the 100 stocks in the index have their opening trade, usually in the first 30 minutes after opening (i.e. just before 7am Pacific time.)

There was a study published on Tastytrade showing that trading this NDX settlement overnight with a "1 standard deviation iron condor" (example/details below) ... works 91.7% of the time (i.e. 12 for 13). I've since verified that for myself; I traded this one weekly until Nasdaq removed it from all but the monthlies last February ...

In the couple of losses I've seen on this trade, I've never seen it go very far "into the money", especially after I "widened the wings" of my condor trades.

Given all this ..

It struck me that it made sense to risk even more on this trade that I have been doing. So I risked $30,500 on this trade:

• short the 7060 put
• long the 6990 put
• short the 7250 call
• long the 7320 call

I put the trade on when the index was around 7150 ... when next I looked it had dropped to 7080! But it recovered and actually spiked the next morning on settlement to 7247 ... just within the short call, so fully profitable.

I sold 5 of these for a $9.00 credit each (i.e. $900), so that's $4500 (minus maybe $100 in commissions and fees, so let's say $4400. That's a 14.4% return.

Back to your problem with the sliding house ... If you could scrape together $200,000 to put into this trade, you'd (for example) have made 6.5 times the $4400, or $28600. It's reasonable to assume your winning this trade 5 times in a row, ramping up with increased capital. Volatility will vary, so you won't necessarily make as much as $9.00 all the time ...

In 5 months you could expect to make $100,000 extra, for whatever you can do with that (put 1/3 down on the $300,000 loan you need to fix your house?)

And you could lose $80000 or even $100000 if an extreme loss happens at the wrong time ... this is very unlikely (losses when they do happen are likely to be more like $20K to $30K) ...

So: maybe not an everyday strategy, but if you have only a few months to keep your house from crashing, maybe worth considering?

Finally, your virtual $200,000 account ... was up about $14000 last week. I wouldn't have risked more than $100,000 of this account on this trade, without a house teetering on the brink ...

S&P 500 down 4.5%; your virtual $200,000 account + 0.1%

Finishing up the butterflies that were a drag on futures results limited our gains this past week, but the S&P tanked Wednesday and Thursday and we didn't get any of that on us.

A couple of the butterflies we had on continued to hurt results; I am mostly giving up on these and going to short strangles (on futures only) and iron condors with wide strikes.


Futures options pay better than equities, and the diversified bunch of trades I had on after Wednesday's sharp down move wasn't bothered at all:

So: I'll keep on a widely diversified bunch of futures options trades: strangles if I can afford them and otherwise iron condors with wide wings. I'll add an occasional equity trade as well, favoring those that are highly volatile (and therefore which pay better!) I plan to keep around 75% of my futures-enabled accounts in play (not all them are ... the IRAs don't get futures and futures options until later this year on Tastyworks. For those I still limit exposure to 30-40%.)

And one week of every four ...

This is "expiration week" when the Fabulous a.m. settled NDX trade is available Thursday and Friday. I'm going to hit it hard this week, as it should make about 20% on margin (while risking not much more than that, given 75-point wide wings on the iron condor) ... since over time this trade has shown a 91.7% win rate, the only wish I have for it is that i could do it every week, like in the good old days of earlier this year!

More next week!

Different kinds of butterflies; Futures pricing doesn't hold up when market closes

First of all, when you think of a butterfly this is what you might think of:

But this past week some of them turned out more like this:

It turns out that a butterfly spread, even with the legs at the .10 delta, aren't nearly as wide as a strangle or iron condor. And some of the futures started to move this past week and didn't stay where they needed to for the butterflies to pay off.

The winners: Gold (/GC), Wheat (/ZW), British Pound (/6B), S&P Futures (/ES) ... 

The losers: Tesla (TSLA),  Soybeans (/ZS) ... 

Not sure yet (I put some of these on with greater than 21 days to expiration): Japanese Yen (/6J), Chipotle (CMG) and a few others.

Anyway, I sold my first strangle this week in oil (/CL) futures ... if this oil price stays between $70 and $81 for about the next 8 or 9 days I should be able to get the 50% of the credit profit I'm looking for. The lower margin requirement for futures makes this absolutely compelling ...

Your Virtual $200,000 account: Not sure this week

I got excited last week when it looked as though the approximately $20K account was up 6.8% for the week ... but now I'm not sure. Clearly things haven't gone as well this week, but the way futures options prices bounce around after the close of the market makes it impossible to really tell what's happening until the market reopens.

So I think you're down about $8K or $10K this week (i.e 4-5%), but not positive. I'll have a better read on this for next week.

More news then ... I will have a better view of this next week.

Widely diversified bunch of trades show great week (+6.8%) though equities underperform!

Here's a screenshot of my account at the end of the week:

Notice the green on the rightmost column: that's profit or loss since the opening of the trade. (I was wrong about the /ZN trade winning at the end of last week; that was a pricing anomaly. But it's doing well.)

These are all futures butterfly spreads, with a diverse group of currencies (British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen) and "soft commodities" (soybeans and wheat and corn) and crude oil. None of these have moved very much over the past week, just what we want for these neutral trades. And even the one currently showing a loss is just an artifact of pricing weirdness during the end of the trading day. This should be green when the market reopens tomorrow afternoon, too.

This is my little account that I've had to raid too much the past few months for some real estate and other personal stuff that's going on. But another account is more nearly representative of your virtual $200,000 account. It went from $21537 to $23009 this past week ... that's $15560 in your account!

Here's that account in detail:

This account has the gold futures butterfly with short strikes at 1200 & showing a nice profit. But notice a few more red numbers over to the right ... the Amazon trade is a 21-day iron condor, now with 20 of those days left. It's typical for an iron condor to be showing a small loss for a while until its constituent options start to expire. Even though AMZN has been on a tear upward again lately, I don't think it will get anywhere near the short strike of $2090. So this one should pay the 50 percent of credit we're looking for.

CMG (Chipotle) is a butterfly trade that's right on the edge of getting back to profitability. But the worst one is another butterfly, TSLA.

The ramifications of the "funding secured of TSLA sale at $420/share is assured" tweet from last month are coming due ... Elon Musk was first offered a deal by the SEC that he turned down ... the SEC then brought the hammer down.

But today Elon blinked and made a deal to step down as chairman so he could stay CEO. Thus Tesla shares should recover nicely on Monday ... I think!

Now enjoy this summer cornfield picture and help visualize my corn trades flip into the green ... more next week!

/ZN trade wins, leading to more diversification ... and better profits, I think!

Your $200,000 virtual account made $5734.40 last week. (Watch this space for better results next week.)

I've just been (mostly) trading SPX for the past several months, and that's mostly worked. (The addition of the NDX a.m. settlement trade has been an excellent kicker, adding profit once per month since Nasdaq pulled the plug on the weekly version.)

The /ZN butterfly trade I put on last Sunday has already produced more than 1/4 of its full credit. Unfortunately Tastyworks doesn't yet have Good 'Til Cancelled orders available for futures options, so I'll have to get this done when the market opens tomorrow afternoon.

I just this evening ran the numbers on a range of futures options: gold, oil, the British Pound, the Euro, Soybeans, Wheat and bonds ... The futures margining system, SPAN, is so much more lenient than the standard options margining system that the profit potential is much greater:

Not only that, diversifying by sector like this removes the "terrorist attack" problem by just diversifying within equities. Most of the equities move together during stressful events (like 2008), where futures markets are more diverse.

I've been diversifying over time: putting on an SPX trade every couple of days ... and although that worked well enough, the 2-day-differing expirations are too highly correlated, especially after the weeks like we just had:

I'm short the 2950 calls in SPX, which have suffered on this up move with 10-12 days to go in the two expirations. (But fortunately the overnight NDX trade covered this loss and then some. Yay!)  I'm wide open to a down opening on Monday a.m. swinging these trades to a small profit. But I think I'm going to take them off in favor of this diverse futures setup anyway ...

More next week ...

Trades so far:

Expiration	Underlying	Long put	Short put	Short call	Long call	Credit Received	Result
07/16/2018/	SPX	2680	2730	2810	2860	$3.60	Won 100%
07/18/2018/	SPX	2700	2750	2820	2870	$3.95	Won 100%
07/20/2018/	SPX	2700	2750	2835	2885	$2.40	Won 100%
07/20/2018 (a.m.)/	NDX	7260	7310	7410	7460	$5.99	Won 100%
07/25/2018	SPX	2705	2755	2835	2885	$2.40	lost 16% of amount at risk
07/27/2018	SPX	2695	2745	2825	2875	$3.50	Won 100%
07/30/2018	SPX	2720	2770	2850	2900	$2.60	Won 100%
08/01/2018	SPX	2730	2780	2870	2920	$2.15	Won 100%
08/03/2018	CMG	430	450	490	510	$1.01	Won 100%
08/03/2018	AMZN	1692.5	1722.5	1887.5	1917.5	$2.60	Won 100%
08/06/2018	SPX	2720	2770	2860	2910	$2.05	Won 100%
08/08/2018	SPX	2740	2790	2860	2910	$2.05	Won 100%
08/10/2018	RUT	1610	1640	1710	1740	$1.53	Won 100%
08/10/2018	AMZN	1737.50	1767.50	1885	1915	$1.79	Lost about 30%
08/13/2018	SPX	2760	2810	2885	2935	$1.65	Won
08/15/2018	SPX	2760	2810	2860	2910	$3.80	Won
08/17/2018 (a.m.)	NDX	7310	7360	7460	7510	$4.42	Lost 7.07%
08/22/2018	SPX	2720	2770	2860	2910	$3.95	Won 70% of possible
08/24/2018	SPX	2745	2795	2880	2930	$3.30	Won 100%
08/24/2018	RUT	1600	1650	1715	1765	$2.16	Lost 17.7%
08/27/2018	SPX	2760	2810	2890	2940	$2.45	Lost 23%
08/29/2018	SPX	2770	2820	2890	2940	$2.95	Lost 47%
08/31/2018	SPX	2795	2845	2925	2975	$2.55	Won 100%%
09/21/2018	SPX	2750	2780	2980	3910	$2.45	Won 50%
09/24/2018	SPX	2750	2770	2970	2990	$1.85	Won 50%
09/26/2018	SPX	2725	2735	2955	2965	$1.15	Won 52.7%
09/28/2018	SPX	2700	2720	2955	2975	$2.05	(open)
10/01/2018	SPX	2705	2735	2950	2980	$2.60	(open)
10/03/2018	SPX	2710	2740	2950	2980	$2.60	(open)
10/05/2018	SPX	2765	2785	2965	2985	$2.10	(open)
10/26/2018	/ZN	117.5	119	119	121	0"56	Won 25% of credit -- all that we expected
09/22/2018	NDX	7475	7510	7650	7690	$3.11	Won 100%