Friday, January 12, 2018

Another winning week: "production" NDX and testing the TSLA trade

The NDX trade is now 10 for 11 ...





and TSLA's test trade is 1 for 1!


Volatility is still (of course) very low, so I didn't get a huge amount of credit on either trade. For NDX I got credit between $1.25 and $1.29 (14.3% to 14.8%) and for the TSLA trade I got 32 cents (on a 2.50 wide Iron Condor) so that's 14.7% ...

The Kelly Criterion calculator gives the optimal risk amount for the NDX range, assuming the previously published 91.7% win rate, as about 1/3 of the account ... which is a bit more than I risked for these. I was at about .8 Kelly for a couple of the accounts. But anytime you win, it's OK!.... I'll have to watch this while volatility is so low. Also it's impossible to fine-tune in small accounts with the number of contracts risked going up in $800+ chunks.

But the NDX 10 for 11 is 90.9% ... and one more win brings it to the mythical 91.7%!

More next week ...


No comments:

Post a Comment