Trump rally reboots ... but can't last forever!

I cashed out the  another trade for a profit this morning: 8.9%. But the "Trump Rally" is hurting results a bit:

If not for the up move of the last few days this trade would've made up to 17% or so.

Also, the short futures segment has suffered under this move ... though the credit received in selling puts has it still just below breakeven. And we get to sell another put every week!

Charts below ... The main trade is now 9 for 12: 75%.

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Won	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Won	+6.7%
04/25/2017	SPY	Won	+8.9%
05/01/2017	SPY	Open
05/08/2017	SPY	Open
05/15/2017	SPY	Open

Futures:

Trade Date	What	Qty	Credit Received	Net Liq Change Since Start
04/25/2017	/ES Put	-1	$362.50	$0
05/03/2017	/ES Put	-1	$487.50	+$70.00
05/12/2017	/ES Put	-1	$337.50	+$1250.00
05/17/2017	/ES Put	-1	$500.00	+$1250.00
05/26/2017	/ES Put	-1	$262.50	-$100.00

Finally a down tick lets us cash out the oldest trade ...

It looks like the Trump vs. Comey story is finally affecting the market:

It was down enough this a.m. early for me to finally get the April 17 trade off for a 6.7% profit.

Once again, the trade characteristics are such that there's more room on the downside than the upside. The market was somewhat down on April 17 when I put this trade on and the market's flirting with 2400 the past few days kept it just barely unprofitable. Normally I would have taken it off last Friday, 21 days until expiration (June 2 expiration for these particular options), but I wanted to give it a few days to see if there would be this profitable down move ... and it worked!

The charts are now like this:

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Won	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Won	+6.7%
04/25/2017	SPY	Open
05/01/2017	SPY	Open
05/08/2017	SPY	Open
05/15/2017	SPY	Open

That's a 72% win rate on these, finally.

The futures trade is doing well also:

Trade Date	What	Qty	Credit Received	Net Liq Change
04/25/2017	/ES Put	-1	$362.50	$0
05/03/2017	/ES Put	-1	$487.50	+$70.00
05/12/2017	/ES Put	-1	$337.50	+$1250.00

More details as they become available!

Short /ES and "reducing basis": an illustration

The S&P futures market went straight up yesterday after the jobs report:

If you'll remember from my first post on this subject 10 days or so ago, I sold the futures contract at 2383.75. It gains or loses $50 per point, so at yesterday's close of 2399.25 it's lost 15.5 points: $775.

But! I've also sold two puts, the first for $362.50 (I closed it out for $5) and the other for $487.50. So that's $845 total, giving me a small profit even after this move against the position.

This latest put expires next Friday, at which point I will sell another on for another $300 or $400 ... following the market up if necessary (though I hope not!)

The charts:

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Open	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Open
04/25/2017	SPY	Open
05/01/2071	SPY	Open

Trade Date	What	Qty	Credit Received	Net Liq Change
04/25/2017	/ES Put	-1	$362.50	$0
05/01/2017	/ES Put	-1	$487.50	+$70.00

More next week ...

First week of short /ES: results

The S&P futures market has gone back to trading in a tight range:

This is one of the modes that pay handsomely for short /ES futures (with the addition of short puts).
A few minutes ago, the results were like this:

Down $75 on the futures contract itself (i.e. 1.5 points in the wrong direction), but up $255 on the expiring put, now worth only $100 after we sold it for $362.50 last week. So net we're up $180 on the trade at the moment.

I also put on another of the neutral trades this morning so the results are now:

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Open	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Open
04/25/2017	SPY	Open
05/01/2071	SPY	Open

The /ES profit is currently $180, as mentioned above.

I'll post again when there's something to report ...