NDX Weekly PM-settlement Reminder
They (Nasdaq) changed the weekly options from A.M. Friday settlement to P.M. Friday, making a 4-hour (or less) trade into a 10-hour one, which makes all the difference. Especially this past Friday.
What I should have done (at the very least) would be to get up at market open and close the NDX positions. Instead I waited a little later and closed most of the ones I had on and only let one in my personal account (fortunately just a one-lot) go to expiration.
The really annoying part is that this would have in fact been a winner if a.m. settled, as NDS (the NDX settlement value, which is calculated anyway even if NDX isn't using it):
6,871.33
And I'd sold the 6870 put, so this would have been a full winner, again. Rats!
The real carnage in the market started later in the morning:
Fortunately the monthly NDX options are still a.m. settled, so I can still get this trade in 1 of every 4 or 5 weeks. But my plan was to do it every week and I'll have to find one or more substitutes.
That brings us to TSLA, which was 3 for 3 coming into Thursday If I want to do the Kelly Criterion analysis for this one I need to start gathering data, so:
$0.32 14.6% (on a $2.50 wide iron condor)
$0.57 29.5%
$0.59 30.9%
$0.73 41.2%
... but the last one failed ... If I average these 4 I get $0.5525, or 28.3%.
The Kelly Criterion for this at a 75% win rate is negative (i.e. "no bet!") But if I change the rate to 80%, it suggests you bet 9% of your account ...
More next week ...
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