Friday, December 28, 2018

Wildly volatile week turns out OK after all ...

After this week I feel like I've been ...


(Well, maybe to Purgatory. I haven't read this book, either.)

I stuck with my long /ES futures contract all the way down and back up:

This guy didn't read "what every secretary of the treasury should know" before saying that he called all the banks ...
The banks said they were OK.
... but the market on Monday wasn't so sure, /ES closing at 2342.25 at the end of the 1/2 day Christmas Eve session.

On Wednesday, the consensus must have been "hey, we overdid it" and /ES rose nearly 5%. Thursday was also a crazily volatile day, with /ES dipping back below 2400 before sharply rallying at the end of the day, closing at around 2495. It flattened out on Friday, finally, closing at 2488.

Assuming no other crazy drops from here, that leaves me in good position long one /ES future (bought at 2503, back before the craziness) and short one /ES 2570 call expiring next Friday the 4th. I can let that one expire worthless ... or on a crazy up move cover it and get out of the way.

I also put on a couple of neutral trades in my own and client's accounts that were looking very shaky to the down side but now look shaky to the upside .. assuming the shutdown is going to be resolved next week. I'm almost back even on the 2245 / 2570 short strangle in my own account, and if it gets to being a small profit on Sunday afternoon when the market reopens I'm going to be tempted to take it and run.

Client accounts have neutral iron condors on TSLA, CMG and SPX ... SPX looks scary to the upside (short the 2550 call), but the TSLA and CMG were so beaten down that they have oodles of room to go further up just to get back into the green.

More next week ...

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