A challenge for the "short oil" strategy; more on Navigation Trading

There was a Yemeni strike on the Saudi oil infrastructure this past week:

You might expect this to cause a spike in the price of oil, and in fact you'd be right:

But it looks like it peaked very briefly at $64 or so but is back down as I write this (Sunday 8:27 pm PDT) to $59.61. The Saudi oil industry isn't the key to the global supply it once was, and though this strike hit a key piece of infrastructure ... there's still plenty of oil washing around in the world supply.

Amory Lovins said that his vision of the long-term price of oil would be that it would be "low and irrelevant." I think he's still right on this point ...

More on Navigation Trading: "keeping the dream alive"

Once again, I'm working on automating access to this guy's trades ..  As you can see, he hasn't posted a losing month since he started keeping records in June 2017. 

How does he do it? For one thing, he doesn't count a trade as a loss until he's given up on "adjusting/rolling" it. For example, He closed out an Intel (INTC) trade last month (August 2019) that he started in late July or early August and "adjusted/rolled" several times before squeaking through to show a $26 profit.

Intel's challenge to neutral trading strategies this summer

This is OK as long as you understand that you won't be able to look at your account at the end of every month and see exactly the performance he's posting. If you have 2 or 3 of these trades going that he's in the middle of adjusting/rolling then you will be down possibly a few thousand dollars from what he posts ... but you should make up those by the end of the next month.

For further exploration of this idea, watch Tastytrade ... they call it "keeping the dream alive" ... There's also a book by an advocate of this approach:

Questions?

A quieter week than I thought ... and a new service offering I can provide

I thought that we'd have more volatility this past week, what with the latest round of tariffs kicking in September 1, but no:

So the equity positions I had on just quietly made a little money this week.

But the big news is that I've become aware of another trader who has published a terrific track record the last 2+ years ... trades that I can automate and bring to you as a service.

I am still interested in bringing my trading ideas to those interested, but I don't have a track record of performance to show yet. So this automation service for the other trader's trades is what I can do for now.

Full details of the offer are at my website. I expect demand for this service to be strong and I suggest you contact me ASAP if you find this of interest.

A somewhat quieter week (but don't get used to it) ; one tweak to the plan but otherwise ...

As weird as it's been lately, at least it's not eighty years ago:

Not that it's not plenty weird enough:

As for the trading plan I described here last week:

• Oil continues to go nowhere up
• Equity markets calmed down ... I made a profit on the neutral equity trades I have on last week
• Gold stopped going up, for the moment

So as for gold, I'd switch from being long (buying gold futures and selling calls against it) to being neutral (selling both calls and puts simultaneously and assuming it will stay in a range) ...

Example trades I'd put on when the futures markets reopen Monday (Labor Day):

• Short the 59.5 /CL (oil futures) calls expiring October 17
• Short the 1470 /GC puts and the 1575 /GC calls, expiring September 25

Once again: I will trade for you for 5 years without asking for any fees if you will fund an account with between $150,000 and $200,000 to retire on ...

I may not have this offer available forever, so please contact me soon if interested!

Trading a $150,000 retirement account in a crazy era

I've been advertising that one can retire comfortably on $150,000 to $200,000 and I received one interested party via Craigslist. So here are the details.

The key features of the plan and the assumptions that underlie them:

• Solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels, so the prices of oil and natural gas should not go up in the future
• Gold has been going up for months due to its role as a store of value, and should stay high and possibly go further up
• Equity options are more volatile (and therefore pay better) than they have been for most of the last few years, so there is opportunity in selling these options to capture this extra premium.

The way I'd analyze the application of these ideas to produce enough retirement income is like this:

• Figure out how much monthly income is needed to fund one's retirement
• I can structure trades to bring in 2x that amount per month (most months) and if you're only taking 1/2 that will cover any shortfall in a particular month.

So let's assume $6000 in monthly income; how can we make $12000?

It's unfortunate that we're just getting started talking about this now, as yesterday conformed to the Oil/Gold part of the analysis completely after the latest Trump Tweet Storm:

Oil futures on Friday 8/23

Gold futures on Friday 8/23

For oil and gold, the trades are:

• Oil: sell 15 of the $57 strike calls expiring September 17,  bringing in $5935.20, of which I sell after 12 of the 24 days bringing in $2967 or so ...
• Gold: Buy 5 contracts and sell 5 calls at the $1540 strike (just out of the money), bringing in $12000 credit on the calls ... If the price of gold would just stay put, we can get 75% of that for $9000, getting us very close to our target ... but gold was up $38 yesterday, so we can't count on this ... it may take a couple of months for this trade to show a profit, but selling these rich calls at every opportunity is too good to pass up.

These two together would take about 1/2 your account in margin, around $75000 ...

You can make up the difference with equity options, for example, in Chipotle options:

• Sell the October 4 725 put
• Sell the October 4 890 call

Total credit is $1430; margin is another $8000 from your account. 

Other volatile equity options abound, and I could put in a spread of these to make $3000 to $4000 more per month.

Here's an example from a tiny account I'm trading:

All these trades profit from declining volatility, but volatility spiked yesterday ... but they're mostly still in good shape to come off for a profit in coming days. For example, the Chipotle (CMG) trade is still well away from the "short strikes" of 770 and 870, which is the region it need to stay in to profit.

Craziness continues; A.M. Triumvirate debuts; equities + futures = profit!

The market craziness continued this week, with equity prices whipsawing crazily all month so far:

S&P 500's wild August 2019

As I mentioned last month, I demoted the "fabulous NDX trade" and moved to use each of the three a.m. settled indices: SPX, NDX and RUT.

I am just trading small accounts right now (mea culpa) so can't do wider "wings" on the iron condors, and this week once again showed why that's a problem ...

The NDX trade was short the 7530 and long the 7540 call, and the a.m. settlement price was all the way up to 7564. That's 100% loss in the case: $737 per 1-lot ... if one had been doing 50-point-wide wings, that reduces the loss to about 65% ...

The other two trades worked ... and didn't. RUT was OK, being the least volatile of the three lately.
SPX closed at 2870, great for the account where I had the short strike at 2875 ... but I put one on later in the a.m. that had the short strike at 2865, long at 2870, so: 100% loss ($390 per one-lot) .... but less than 10% if doing 50-point-wide strikes.

So I think I'll mostly stop doing this trade in accounts that aren't big enough to widen the strikes ...

The two accounts I'm trading right now are both small enough that they can't handle futures trades, and that makes all the difference right now. While the equity positions I've been trading have held up better than I would have thought, they're just down slightly (about 8%) where futures positions would have taken up the slack.

I mentioned the 'short oil' trade last time. Natural gas is similar. But opposite these two is gold, which has been going up:

The thing is, selling calls against a long commodity position is very rich; volatility goes up (and prices go up) the higher you go. For example, the latest gold futures (/GCV9) price is 1517 ... and you can sell the 1525 call option expiring September 25 for $27.30 ... i.e. $2730 credit. This brings your breakeven price to the downside all the way to $1490 ... 

That together with your short oil and gas positions can keep your account humming while equities are going nowhere.

More next week!

Crazy week (it could have been worse) new trade implied by solar energy price crash

"Better positioned for next week?" Silly me:

That's a 100-point range in the S&P 500, and the futures markets in S&P were 50 points wider at least ...

This guy was at it again:

The market recovered most of what it lost and got back into the range where the neutral trades I have on have a chance to make a profit, finally, by the end of the week.

But the big news is the documentary I saw last week ... if oil and gas are now more expensive than solar, that implies that one could go "short" these two ... forever.

The two futures tickers involved are first, crude oil: /CL

And natural gas, /NG

These last two charts show the last 2 years of each commodity price ... had I seen the documentary shortly after it came out I could have been profiting all along!

Two possible trades:

1.  short futures contract and sell 1 put against each contract
2. short futures call option

These are equivalent, risk-wise (according to Tastytrade), but for /CL the short call takes less margin ($2800 versus $4000+ for the combination one above) ... 

More next week ...

S&P 500 down 3.1% ... our system down 0.17% ... and better poised for next week

This was a crazy week in the market ... First, The Federal Reserve cut interest rates:

But not enough, according to the markets, which went DOWN:

I was congratulating myself as I had entered a "put debit spread" on SPX just before the fed announcement: long the 3015 put and short the 3010 put, risking $200 to make $300 in the best case ... on the "buy the rumor, sell the news" theory ...

But then Thursday early the market regained all it had lost on Wednesday until:

... Trump announced a bunch more tariffs:

... making my SPX debit spread happy again, and getting all the other trades I have going in the right spot to be profitable again next week. (Not last week, as volatility increased ... and our trades profit by volatility going down ("short vega") ... or time going by with nothing happening ("positive theta") ...

As for the debit spread in SPX, risking 2 to make 3 ... I'd love to have more of these but I doubt they're really even a 50-50 shot ... so I won't make these part of the plan yet, just will do a bit more experimenting here and there.

Careful readers will recall I put on a debit spread in NFLX the other way last week ... but I closed it out even before all the excitement from Wednesday onward for just a small loss.

More next week!