Sunday, August 25, 2019

Trading a $150,000 retirement account in a crazy era

I've been advertising that one can retire comfortably on $150,000 to $200,000 and I received one interested party via Craigslist. So here are the details.



The key features of the plan and the assumptions that underlie them:

  • Solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels, so the prices of oil and natural gas should not go up in the future
  • Gold has been going up for months due to its role as a store of value, and should stay high and possibly go further up
  • Equity options are more volatile (and therefore pay better) than they have been for most of the last few years, so there is opportunity in selling these options to capture this extra premium.
The way I'd analyze the application of these ideas to produce enough retirement income is like this:
  • Figure out how much monthly income is needed to fund one's retirement
  • I can structure trades to bring in 2x that amount per month (most months) and if you're only taking 1/2 that will cover any shortfall in a particular month.
So let's assume $6000 in monthly income; how can we make $12000?

It's unfortunate that we're just getting started talking about this now, as yesterday conformed to the Oil/Gold part of the analysis completely after the latest Trump Tweet Storm:

Oil futures on Friday 8/23

Gold futures on Friday 8/23

For oil and gold, the trades are:


  • Oil: sell 15 of the $57 strike calls expiring September 17,  bringing in $5935.20, of which I sell after 12 of the 24 days bringing in $2967 or so ...
  • Gold: Buy 5 contracts and sell 5 calls at the $1540 strike (just out of the money), bringing in $12000 credit on the calls ... If the price of gold would just stay put, we can get 75% of that for $9000, getting us very close to our target ... but gold was up $38 yesterday, so we can't count on this ... it may take a couple of months for this trade to show a profit, but selling these rich calls at every opportunity is too good to pass up.
These two together would take about 1/2 your account in margin, around $75000 ...

You can make up the difference with equity options, for example, in Chipotle options:

  • Sell the October 4 725 put
  • Sell the October 4 890 call
Total credit is $1430; margin is another $8000 from your account. 

Other volatile equity options abound, and I could put in a spread of these to make $3000 to $4000 more per month.

Here's an example from a tiny account I'm trading:

All these trades profit from declining volatility, but volatility spiked yesterday ... but they're mostly still in good shape to come off for a profit in coming days. For example, the Chipotle (CMG) trade is still well away from the "short strikes" of 770 and 870, which is the region it need to stay in to profit.



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