Going live with a small account

I funded a Tastyworks account two weeks ago and am going to just post its profit/loss data here ... I think I've proven the neutral trade sufficiently for myself, and I hope for you readers.

I started with $6500 on July 13, and so far the "net liq" in the account is ... $6512.23. As you'll recall, the trade has more room to the downside, so the market lately hasn't been optimal:

But by putting only 1/4 of the stake in every week, this keeps a big chunk from being whipsawed to a Trump-inspired loss all at once.

Also note: this is net of commissions.  Tastyworks commissions are so low, this is very helpful in trying to keep trading profitably.

More soon ...

Bumping along the top!

Well, the S&P 500 didn't go down, but it has started just bumping along the top:

This is ideal for our neutral trade, except for volatility being so low. But this pattern allows us to swing back to a profit on the futures trade, just selling a put every week for another $300 or $400 (at this volatility level) ...

Result charts are like this:

The neutral trade:

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Won	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Won	+6.7%
04/25/2017	SPY	Won	+8.9%
05/01/2017	SPY	Lost	-5.0%
05/08/2017	SPY	Won	+5.0%
05/15/2017	SPY	Won	+6.1%
05/22/2017	SPY	Won	+2.0%
05/30/2017	SPY	Open
06/5/2017	SPY	Open
06/12/2017	SPY	Open

The short /ES futures trade:

Trade Date	What	Qty	Credit Received	Net Liq Change Since Start
04/25/2017	/ES Put	-1	$362.50	$0
05/03/2017	/ES Put	-1	$487.50	+$70.00
05/12/2017	/ES Put	-1	$337.50	+$1250.00
05/17/2017	/ES Put	-1	$500.00	+$1250.00
05/26/2017	/ES Put	-1	$262.50	-$100.00
06/02/2017	/ES Put	-1	$325.00	-$312.50
06/09/2017	/ES Put	-1	$450.00	+$150.00
06/15/2017	/ES Put	-1	$325.00	+$350.00

Another neutral trade is going on tomorrow morning ...

What goes up must eventually come down ...

Something in the news last week sent the market further up to hit more record highs:

This hurt both sides of our trades; the short futures position got hammered ... as I write this the S&P futures price is 2435.50, which is 51.75 points above where I sold it short ... at $50 per point, that's $2587.50.

But! I sold another put for a credit on Friday: a $325 credit, so I'm down only $312 or so on the futures trade. And I'll sell another put every week, forever, and eventually the market will stop going up and even ... go down!

I had to take a 5% loss in one of the neutral trades to meet a margin call on the futures position; the other neutral trades I have on are hurting but not dead yet. Charts below:

Trade Date	Symbol	Result	Profit/Loss	Comment
02/06/2017	SPY	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	SPY	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	SPY	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	SPY	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	SPY	Won	+15.3%
03/13/2017	SPY	Won	+12.9%
03/20/2017	TLT	Lost	-1.4%	Dumb!
03/27/2017	SPY	Won	+9.6%
04/03/2017	SPY	Won	+6.6%	18 days long
04/10/2017	SPY	Won	+11.1%	only 14 days!
04/17/2017	SPY	Won	+6.7%
04/25/2017	SPY	Won	+8.9%
05/01/2017	SPY	Lost	-5.0%
05/08/2017	SPY	Open
05/15/2017	SPY	Open
05/22/2017	SPY	Open
05/30/2017	SPY	Open

Trade Date	What	Qty	Credit Received	Net Liq Change Since Start
04/25/2017	/ES Put	-1	$362.50	$0
05/03/2017	/ES Put	-1	$487.50	+$70.00
05/12/2017	/ES Put	-1	$337.50	+$1250.00
05/17/2017	/ES Put	-1	$500.00	+$1250.00
05/26/2017	/ES Put	-1	$262.50	-$100.00
06/02/2017	/ES Put	-1	$325.00	-$312.50

Two in a row!

The trade from February 27 was closed out today for a profit, making two in a row!



 The market continues to bump along the top of its all-time high, which is perfect for the trade we're doing. The results chart now looks like this:

Trade Date	Result	Profit/Loss
02/06/2017	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	Won	+17%
03/06/2017	Open
03/13/2017	Open

I can't resist; next up is a monte carlo simulation with this data set extrapolated over time: a 77% win rate (via TastyTrade) with average 17% loss but 16% win. 

Update on trades: a winner cashed out today!

The Trump Rally has run out of steam:

And this 'straight across with minor wiggles is just what the trade I'm doing needs. Here's the latest set of results:

Trade Date	Result	Profit/Loss
02/06/2017	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	Lost	-16%
02/21/2017	Won	+15.4%
02/27/2017	Open
03/06/2017	Open
03/13/2017	Open

I'm expecting several in a row now to pay off, and in fact the 2/27 and 3/06 trades are currently showing profits.

So the future's so bright ....

Harrumph; first test trade lost but two more in progress

The Trump Rally is hell on a neutral trade like the one I'm testing:

The trade pays off in that broad middle area when the market goes back and forth

in a relatively narrow range, as the graphic above shows. But instead the Trump Rally has been doing more like this:

So the result chart so far is like this (profit/loss is on the amount risked per trade; in this case about $1000, so the loss is $180.)

Trade Date	Result	Profit/Loss
02/06/2017	Lost	-18%
02/13/2017	Open
02/21/2017	Open

What goes up, must come down! This can't last and this sort of trade wins 77% of the time ... meaning we should win 8 in a row here sometime soon ...