No mistakes this week but annoying market continues; hope in Fed meeting?

I didn't make any goofs like last week, but the market continued Way Too Up for my short SPX call spread and SPY butterfly.

The short call strike on my SPX iron condor is at 2870 ...

This all started when the market interpreted remarks by Jerome Powell and other Fed Governors that they were ready to cut rates.

But there are plenty of dissenters with this view ... I mean, rates are still at rock bottom in historical terms ... And in any event the market has been very poor at predicting interest rates.

So: hope springs eternal for the S&P 500 trades. Otherwise I have on: TSLA, LYFT, QQQ and IWM ... all of which are showing profits but TSLA, and it's still $10+ below the short strike at $225. So I have expectation that all of these will come in for full profit (25% of butterfly credits, 50% of Iron Condors) over the next week or so.

I'll send another update then ...

A good week: up 8% or so

Butterflies continue to pay off ...

That's IWM, SPY and QQQ ... just one-lot "iron fly" trades for the moment. Basically:

• Sell 1 put and 1 call at the money
• Buy 1 put and 1 call right at the .10 delta

... Take the trade off when you've achieved 1/4 of the credit ... in this case about $250 in SPY, $160 in QQQ, a bit over $125 for IWM. Not bad for around 8 days (typical) time in this trade.

I also have a TSLA trade on ... I skipped the main part of its recent price swoon (in my own account, though I had this on in one of my client accounts, unfortunately) after this analyst remark:

Tesla shares could drop to $10 in a worst-case scenario, Morgan Stanley says

Elon Musk says not so ... and I doubt it too. But it's below $200 and I'm willing to bet it won't go below $170 for the next 3 weeks ...

I also have a LYFT trade on that looks to be working ... LYFT just has not to swoon or soar for the next couple of weeks also.

Finally, I did one earnings trade that worked very well:

I just did a 1 standard deviation short strangle for a nice credit: $2.66 ... and I got a bonus on closing it! I had the standard 50% set for closing out price: $1.33 ... but I actually got filled at $0.95 ... more like 65% of the credit. Wahoo!

More next week ...

Earnings season continues; leaving money on the table ... /ES futures update

Earnings season went into overdrive this week ... unfortunately I left money on the table on Monday:

First, one good thing happened early Monday:

I sold 4 Iron Condors on Friday and they were down 50% by Monday and closed out for a $100 profit (on about $900 of risk). I wish I'd sold 40 of them!

I made only one earnings trade: JNJ (a small winner) and then got distracted and left several other possible ones without pulling the trigger.

Two losers on Tuesday, CSX and BK ... both small losses (just under $100 and just over $100), fortunately. The 8 other earnings plays I did this week all won.

This was also the week we get to do the Fabulous NDX trade, which I sold for $559 (a one-lot) ... and on this one you get to keep all of it (minus a smidgen of commissions) when it expires worthless the next morning ... which happened as expected this time on Thursday a.m., since the Friday market was closed for Good Friday.

As far as the /ES, it's been zooming back and forth:

If it will just keep from zooming up I can continue to sell puts ... like the $925 batch (of two) I sold on Wednesday, expiring Friday the 26th ...

More next week ...

Opening of spring "earnings season" inauspicious .. short /ES painful, short LYFT just fine!

Three banks had earnings on Friday ... two won and one lost (JPM):

So after 3 earnings trades this "season" we're down a few dollars ... JPM lost more than the other two together won ..

I did dodge one bullet and made one smart trade, I think:

Since the /ES futures had been bouncing off 2900 and going back down every time they touched it, I thought, hey, a 2905/2910 short call spread! Why not? I didn't, though, and on Friday:

I am continuing to sell puts against my short /ES position, but this just gets it further away, darn it ...

But my best trade of the week concerns ride-sharing company Lyft ... I can't find the reference where this was mentioned, but I heard on Tastytrade, I think, that they've so far lost $17 for every ride they've given.

And their IPO has been less than stellar:

So I sold the 69/74 call spread expiring May 3 and should get 1/2 the credit on this on by April 22 or so ...

Earnings season takes off next week, with some big ones:

More next week!