Sunday, August 26, 2018

Relentlessly straight up market hurts results ...

Our trading plan is neutral, meaning it pays off if the underlying instrument stays within a specified range for the days the trade is active.

The past ten days, though,  it went up just about too much to handle:


The Russell 2000 was similar but even worse, going up even faster at the wrong time:


My question becomes: is this anomalously ridiculously too much can't last, or do I need to change my strategy to take advantage of it?

One thing I've been doing consistently (though not with the RUT trade that lost 17% this past week) is move the short call strike in ... but only while the market is running within a few points of its record high. For example, I had it at the 2860 strike for last Wednesday's expiration, and this just barely worked as the market closed at 2861 and change and I had sold the spread for $3.95 ... so the profit was cut to about 70% of what it would have been ... or within striking distance of what it would have been if I'd just sold the spread out wider on the call side and gotten maybe $2.00 on it ...

Here's to a flatter week this coming week:
Results now 15 wins, 4 losses (78.9% wins ... probably not good enough if this continues) ... details to follow:

ExpirationUnderlyingLong putShort putShort callLong callCredit ReceivedResult
07/16/2018/SPX2680273028102860$3.60Won 100%
07/18/2018/SPX2700275028202870$3.95Won 100%
07/20/2018/SPX2700275028352885$2.40Won 100%
07/20/2018 (a.m.)/NDX7260731074107460$5.99Won 100%
07/25/2018SPX2705275528352885$2.40lost 16% of amount at risk
07/27/2018SPX2695274528252875$3.50Won 100%
07/30/2018SPX2720277028502900$2.60Won 100%
08/01/2018SPX2730278028702920$2.15Won 100%
08/03/2018CMG430450490510$1.01Won 100%
08/03/2018AMZN1692.51722.51887.51917.5$2.60Won 100%
08/06/2018SPX2720277028602910$2.05Won 100%
08/08/2018SPX2740279028602910$2.05Won 100%
08/10/2018RUT1610164017101740$1.53Won 100%
08/10/2018AMZN1737.501767.5018851915$1.79Lost about 30%
08/13/2018SPX2760281028852935$1.65Won
08/15/2018SPX2760281028602910$3.80Won
08/17/2018 (a.m.)NDX7310736074607510$4.42Lost 7.07%
08/22/2018SPX2720277028602910$3.95Won 70% of possible
08/24/2018SPX2745279528802930$3.30Won 100%
08/24/2018RUT1600165017151765$2.16Lost 17.7%

No comments:

Post a Comment