Oil trade results so far and backtest results coming

As regular readers know, I've developed a point of view that the price of oil should decline over time ... so far I've done only 3 live trades on a small account:

• Oct 2 -> Oct19  +$360 (expired worthless)
• Oct 17 -> Oct 31 +$700
• Oct 31 -> Nov 19 +$800

These were all neutral trades, "short strangles" selling the 49.5 put and the 59 or 60 call.

I had to clear out this small account to handle some domestic expenses, so I put on a paper trade with the more desirable "ratio strangle" selling 2 of the 66 calls and one of the 54 puts.

So far that one looks like a winner too, up $320 so far and with probably another week or so to run until I close it and take the "virtual profit".

So far so good ... but some potential customers just absolutely require backtesting before they will invest.

Today I downloaded a free set of end-of-day of /CL futures pricing from Quandl .. which gives me some indication of backtesting results:

• 2019 -- looks to have lost only 1 (of 13 or 14) potential trades due to run-up from 47 to 56 or so January 1 to 16 ....

But in general it's a guessing game. Without the actual options data and expirations, we don't know where we would have entered each trade, and that makes all the difference. If the prices go up sharply the first part of January, but you happen to have entered the trade late Dec when the prices were higher, you're still OK for that one.

I requested a quote on futures options data from Ivolatility, which I hope to get on Monday.

So I'm waiting until I get the actual data to publish actual backtest results. With any luck I'll have that this coming week.

Details coming then ...