Friday, July 5, 2019

TSTO week 2 and trading plan comes into focus: (+3.9% this week)

The trades I put on last week started to come off for profit this week ... I had a couple of losers including CSCO and SPX (more about the latter below), but widely diversified the results still held up well.

As for SPX and its futures equivalent /ES: I've lost more money being short these two than I really want to count, so I'm giving up on this and just going completely neutral. Most recently I said to myself "it really won't reach 2980, will it?" And ...

The /ES futures price was 3003 when I looked at it Thursday night ...

The latest one of these I have on, I sobered up ... I'm short the 3050 call, expiring July 24. Should work! I also got lucky (so far) on one expiring July 22: short the 3000 call ... fingers crossed on that one that the jobs report today took a little wind out of the silly market's sails, finally.

So the trading plan from here:

A widely diversified set of trades for most of the month, taken primarily from the Tastytrade list ... I'm going to avoid earnings for these trades, set 21-30 DTE  ... 21 for iron condors, 30ish for butterflies ... so far I'm putting on butterflies just on the indices IWM, SPY, QQQ and TLT ...
If I run out of earnings-avoiding stocks, I can double up on the indices as SPY and SPX have expirations Monday, Wednesday and Friday every week.

During "earnings season" (coming up again in force shortly) I plan to put on earnings trades (defined-risk only in customer accounts) on the nearest-expiring weeklies, on higher-priced volatile stocks only ...

Last but not least, I will put on the "fabulous NDX trade" (1 standard deviation NDX iron condor on Thursday just before it expires on the print of XQO early Friday a.m.) once per month (which is all
 it's available these days ...)

More next week ... I'm very optimistic about this plan and wish I'd tried this sooner!





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