Friday, November 17, 2017

Update: 2 more successful weeks ... and another leg of the trading plan now in place

I've been moving for the last week so missed last week's post ...

We are in the process (after 17 years!) of moving from a house we had built and where we'd lived since 2000. The new house is a rental:

... that looks kind of like this, but on more acreage (no houses around). Our little cockapoo Myla likes the place ...

(This is one of Myla's cousins I found on the Internet.) The only trouble for Myla is those other cousins that are around:


So we have to watch her ... But back to the subject at hand!

Last week I made the NDX trade just before expiration, which only yielded 75 cents: on a $10 wide spread that's 8.1%, and Monte Carlo simulation says that's not profitable even winning 91.7% of the time.

So just to try this out, the next day I put on at 8:30 Pacific a 1-day 1-standard deviation Iron Condor in our favorite volatile vehicle: TSLA. I got 15% on this one ... and 8.1 + 15 == ... 23%, just like last week's fabulous one.

So that's one thing I can try: when I get less than 15%, try a 1-day trade the next day to make up the difference, in whatever is volatile: TSLA or NFLX are two to try.

This week I got the trade in one hour before the market closed and got filled at $1.35 ... around 15% just for this one. It worked again so I didn't do anything extra on Friday.

So the NDX trade is now 2 for 3: 66.666667% winning ..

The other "trade leg" I put on this week is short /ES futures, selling puts against them every week.
I started with $28137 last Tuesday ... got filled at $2070.50 and sold the 8-day 2060 puts against these for $9.50 each (i.e. $475 each, since they're $50 per $1 of options in these futures).

As I write this, the futures have settled back to $2575.75 ... but the puts have collapsed to $2.65 so I'm showing a profit: up more in the options than I've lost in the futures.

And I can sell another batch of puts next week ... and the next. So this looks really good!
 More next week ...

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