NDX weeklies + /NQ hedge = $$$$$$! Sweet!

I just mentioned in my last post how one might use an /NQ hedge to move a losing iron condor into the winning column:

I only realized over the next night that this the /NQ hedge is the key to bringing the win rate from 91.67% to 95% or even 100%! I can imagine some weird reversals in /NQ in the middle of the night, but if carefully managed it looks like one would just lose a bit on /NQ and win the main trade ...

Then with the Kelly Criterion you can pick how much of your trading stake to risk each week ...
The formula suggests betting almost 62% of your money on a trade that returns 15% and has a 95% chance of winning. I can understand that one wouldn't want to do that if not sure of that 95% win rate yet, and in any event the Kelly Criterion is known for producing results that are distinctly volatile:

... and you can still get excellent results using 1/2 or 2/3 the suggested bet of the Kelly Criterion.

Anyway, here's the plan:

• Sell N (1 to the number you can stand!) NDX iron condors (or even sell strangles) at one standard deviation (delta 0.16, or 16% probability in Tastyworks) .. do this within 3 hours of the close every Thursday.
• Set a buy market order when the /NQ price gets halfway (or better! in case it zooms as it did last Thursday to the short call strike price) and a sell market order for /NQ 1/2 the way down to the short put.

That's it ... management of the /NQ position is left as an exercise to the reader (and something I'll be experimenting with working on getting to that 100% win rate!)

Note that the Friday morning NDX price is marked under symbol NDS, not NDX.

Questions?