So I rolled the call spreads I had expiring on Friday to Wednesday the 11th, straight across (same strikes ... I couldn't get filled initially trying to roll to Monday the 9th), getting an additional 2.85 in credit!
So I'm visualizing trade war consciousness (and/or some other gravity pull) for the market for the first part of the week so I can get this rolled trade off for a winner.
Now, on to projections ...
First, 6 weeks ago I wanted to see if I could project out 6 weeks, and the projections came out around $60K ... but instead the $50K or so account wound up Friday worth ... just over $75K! Why? I wound up accidentally finding a super-profitable roll and otherwise taking a bit more risk exploiting this ...
Let's try extrapolating again ...
I'm trading 3 accounts, all big enough to be able to support the 30-wide wings of the SPX Iron Condor I'm running ... In these I'm up 28%, 50%, and 33% ... in the last seven weeks or so.
First, let's take the weakest one (28%) and extrapolate simply 1 year and 5 years ... For 1 year, that's 7 times (49 weeks) and 5 years 35 times. Those projections:
1 year: up 5.629X or 562.9%
5 years: up 5653.910X ... or 565391.0% ...
So starting with $50k, that's $281474.50 after 1 year ... and after 5 years:
$282,695,000 ....
This is unlikely, I'd say ... So if I went back to design a Monte Carlo simulation that captures the rolling technique and variants of that ... let's see ... 1 year assuming 87.5% wins, risking 20% of the account, earning 15% on each win, losing a varying amount over the 30-point-wide spread:
theMacintosh:butterfly mark$ ./mca.sh /tmp/30roll.out
min: 49864.586
mean: 867389.75
max: 3391457.5
stddev: 412456.66
Assuming the same except winning only 80% of the time:
theMacintosh:butterfly mark$ ./mca.sh /tmp/roll.80.30.out
min: 17945.24
mean: 299413.6
max: 1755201.6
stddev: 178602.64
Still 6X mean gain ...
Let's start with this week! More details as they become available ...
No comments:
Post a Comment