Friday, June 1, 2018

Another 100% winning week ... profit of over 3.9% on the biggest account I'm trading

It was a zig-zag week that stayed enough in a range to pay off without anything extra required:


I was thinking after Tuesday I needed to be ready to roll on Wednesday, but no such problem ... then after the "trade war restart" late Thursday I was expecting a sharply down day ... but instead I guess the jobs report was too thrilling ...

Anyway, it's June 1 and I'm going to make a couple of small changes to the system for this month:

  • I'm going to take a little more risk, around 20% of the account on each trade. This means that there will be 40% of the account in play most of the time, and 60% in the few hours of Monday, Wednesday and Friday when all 3 trades are active at once.
  • I'm going to mix in some relatively more volatile individual stocks for the Monday to Friday trades, starting with Amazon this coming Monday. I'll also look at TSLA, CMG and a few others.
And the other change I started on in May that I'm absolutely going to keep: I'm going to be absolutely ready to roll any trade that seems to need it near expiration on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

(A question that then occurs: if one is ready to roll any potentially losing trade, why widen the strikes?)

And I'm going to experiment with a big change in my own account; my agreement with others keeps me from doing this for them. I'm going to try selling strangles (i.e. a naked call and a naked put) on some earnings announcements.

I was looking at Costco, which had earnings this past week ... I actually tried to get on an Iron Condor trade just before the close but couldn't get filled. But just for kicks I tried looking at the strangle later ...

Costco's price is around $200, and I didn't realize that the margining for naked options was so small ... around $3000. The credit for a relatively wide strangle was $5.63 (i.e. $563), which amounted to 13.5% if held to expiration (and probably 10% if you took it off at first crack of the market the next day).  And in fact this would have paid off, as Costco went nowhere after the announcement.

I'll pick my spot on these, but this should make a nice extra boost in returns and doesn't seem superbly risky for a 1-lot ...

More next week ....


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