Sunday, March 11, 2018

2nd SPX trade clobbered by jobs report

I put on another 1 standard deviation iron condor on SPX on Wednesday that was just on the edge of losing to the upside until the jobs report came out and the market Really Liked it:

That was my trade exploding; the market graph looked like this:


As you can see, the uptrend continued into the futures market for Sunday, which portends possible problems for the trade I have on as of Friday: another 1 standard deviation (actually a little less than that on the upside; I sold the 2800 call which I think was 17 or 18 delta) Iron Condor on SPX.

It turns out that one can do three of these per week; they expire Monday, Wednesday and Friday ... if they really win 80% or more of the time and return enough per trade, that could be fabulous. And it wouldn't be too unusual for a trade winning 80 or 82% of the time to lose 2 in a row.

But we'll know within a couple of weeks if we're getting close to the 80% number. I'm going to run these every MWF for at least that couple of weeks (just 1 lots until I know) to see how it works.

The fabulous NDX a.m. settled trade is coming up Thursday as well; I'll be looking forward to that!

More next week ...

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